Before we get to why I think the Brexit vote is a red herring, and what you should do about it.
Should you vote for Brexit in the upcoming referendum? I think that’s a waste of your valuable time.
There are far more important things to do. Things that will actually make a difference to your day-to-day life. Like preparing yourself for the financial threat bearing down on your wealth, regardless of whether EU President Schultz or Prime Minister Cameron are bringing it down upon you.
The Brexit vote is a red herring. It’s to make you feel like you took a stand – like you did something. But that idea is deeply flawed for all sorts of reasons. And it stops you from doing the things you actually need to in the face of the war on cash and bail-in legislation.
Don’t vote for Brexit?
Have you noticed how both sides of the Brexit camp have exactly the same reasons for leaving the EU as staying? Defence, trade, political clout, prosperity, immigration… the EU camp says those things are better in the EU. The Brexit camp says they’re better outside it. But nobody ever really explains just how and why.
There’s a simple reason for this confusion. Nobody has any idea what the UK would actually come up with outside the EU. What would they renegotiate? What would they do with their repatriated powers? In the end most outcomes would probably be the same as in the EU anyway. But overall things could be worse, not just better, than being in the EU. Not that anyone can agree on what’s “worse” and what’s “better” anyway.
Bloomberg Intelligence recently published a “Brexit Special” report. It’s marketed as “everything you need to know about the economics of Brexit”. The idea was to analyse the case for and against leaving the EU. And the analysts were surprisingly honest:
“Is it 1%? 3%? A string’s length? The truth is that any estimate of the near-term growth impact of Brexit will be drawn from the heavens. It simply isn’t possible to know in advance how much fear will set in to markets or how consumers and businesses in the U.K. will respond.”
See, even the experts have no idea. They’re comparing the business as usual case of staying in the EU with… erm… well… leaving. And then what? Nobody knows. It’s simply impossible to make a comparison. That’s why a Bloomberg journalist said this on TV while interviewing a Conservative MEP: “I try and talk about this every day and I’m still none the wiser.” The MEP replied he didn’t know either. But he still knows which way to vote of course.
The idea here is that the debate is an emotional, artificial and staged production. You shouldn’t vote for Brexit because of the “uncertainty” that option presents. This is the only accurate fact separating the two options. And it’s entirely valid. But that uncertainty only exists because you aren’t being presented with what a Brexit scenario would look like. It’s artificial uncertainty. Imagine voting in an election between one party you know and a mysterious one you know little about. It’s an absurd idea. But that’s what the Brexit referendum will be like. You get to choose between Cameron’s EU deal and… the great unknown. What kind of vote is that?
“But at least we’ll be able to determine our own policy” doesn’t make much sense to me either. Especially if you think Scotland should stay in the UK. They just want their own policies too. So do the Catalans, Basques and so on. In fact I would love to set my own personal policy, especially tax rates. Where you draw the line is arbitrary. EU, UK, England or Essex.
As an individual you’re pretty much just as powerless in the EU as you are in the UK parliament. On neither count will your vote make the slightest difference. Sure, as a voting group the British would better serve themselves as an independent country. But serve themselves what exactly? Do your fellow voters have the same ideas as you? As our publishing business’ founder is fond of quoting from H.L. Mencken, “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
Isn’t Brexit the EU anyway?
There’s another problem for the Brexiters. If Britain were to leave the EU, which isn’t likely even with a Brexit vote in the referendum, in my opinion, ask yourself who would renegotiate the deal with the EU. The answer is some poor prime minister who wasn’t in favour of leaving the EU in the first place. What is that person likely to come up with in negotiations with the EU? Especially as they’ll be pitching for a job at the EU level, having made a mess of a career in purely British politics.
There’s one more reason why the Brexit story is doomed. Unfortunately the Brexit camp is far too divided to win a credible vote – one where the Brexit scenario is actually defined. “Vote Brexit” is full of people with totally different visions of what Britain should look like. Some hate Muslims, some don’t like having a German president called Schultz, some want a utopian Britain of which there are several million versions.
As soon as any Brexit is voted for, the Brexit camp will be weaker than the pro-EU camp because they’ll start pulling in different directions instead of just in favour of Brexit. Some will pull left and some will pull right, or however you’d like to classify politics. This is called democracy. And it’s what the Brexiters say they want. But they won’t like it if they get it.
What you should do instead of voting
In the end, our leading politicians are pro-EU. So what will happen is very clear. We’ll be in the EU, or effectively in the EU for all intents and purposes, after a renegotiation from outside the EU. Of course there is hope for a proper change. The EU could fall apart of its own accord. But good luck voting it down… no, you need to have your own private solution to the threat to your wealth.
What is that solution? Well, it has to be defensively robust. You have to take into account the wide range of possible outcomes from things like Brexit, a breakup of the EU and so on. That means diversification.
But there are also immense opportunities to profit from political turmoil that causes problems in financial markets. I call this “Policy Profiteering”. And The Fleet Street Letter Editor Charlie Morris has been working on some ideas for how to pull it off. But first, it’s time to ignore the Brexit distraction and prepare for the fallout.
Category: Brexit