WATERFORD, IRELAND – Let’s begin by feasting, like a vulture (many thanks to the Dear Reader who suggested it in Friday’s mailbag), on Friday’s roadkill headlines:
Bloomberg: “Government Shutdown Begins”
CNBC: “Dow Closes Down 1,030 Points”
The New York Times: “Republicans Learn to Love Deficit Spending”
CNN: “Rand Paul Calls Out Hypocrisy of GOP Deficit Hike”
Headlines of the Future
As for the stock plunge, the mainstream press is coming around to our point of view: Interest rates are going up; stocks are going down.
Reports Bloomberg:
U.S. stocks plunged on concern that rising interest rates will drag down economic growth.
U.S. stocks fell to two-month lows after a nine-day swoon, erasing their gains for the year. Thursday’s 3.8% loss took the S&P 500 Index’s decline since its January 26 record past 10%, meeting the accepted definition of a correction. The Dow plunged more than 1,000 points.
We get the news no sooner than anyone else. Many times, we’ve tried to guess what tomorrow’s news will bring. We have done enough tests to know that either it can’t be done reliably… or we are no good at it.
But that doesn’t stop us from trying.
Herewith, for what it is worth, we look at the headlines for the months ahead.
Note that any similarity between these headlines and actual events is purely coincidental:
February 15, 2018 – The Wall Street Journal: “Stocks Recover Their Footing; Dow Up 637 Points”
February 20, 2018 – Bloomberg: “Global Slide in Equity Prices Resumes”
February 28, 2018 – Financial Times: “Investors Pull Record Amount from Stock ETFs”
March 1, 2018 – The Washington Post: “Dow Drops Below 20,000; Trump Blames Democrats for Inaction”
April 5, 2018 – Trump Tweet: “I warned about this. Obama’s big fat bubble is exploding. Democrats need to pass my infrastructure program for America’s crumbling bridges and roadways. FAST!”
April 10, 2018 – Barron’s: “Q1 GDP Growth Weaker than Expected – Economy at Stall Speed”
April 14, 2018 – The Wall Street Journal: “Dow Crash Triggers Circuit Breakers; Robo-Traders Blamed”
April 16, 2018 – The Washington Post: “Schumer to Fed: Time to Change Course”
April 17, 2018 – The New York Times: “‘This is no time for politics,’ says Paul Krugman”
April 18, 2018 – Associated Press: “‘Fed Chairman Powell Needs Courage to Act,’ says Bernanke”
April 27, 2018 – Bloomberg: “Market Wrap – Dow Sinks Below 16,000 as Foreign Investors Pull Out”
May 5, 2018 – The Wall Street Journal: “Help Wanted Ads at Lowest Level Since 2008”
May 6, 2018 – CNN: “Dow Erases Last 5 Years’ Gain; Closes Below 14,000”
May 8, 2018 – CNBC: “Revised Numbers for Q1 Show Economy Shrinking at Faster Pace Than First Reported”
May 9, 2018 – The Wall Street Journal: “Powell Has Little Room for Maneuver, Say Fed Watchers; Should Have Tightened Sooner, Critics Charge”
May 10, 2018 – The Washington Post: “Fast Track Promised for Trump’s Infrastructure Program”
May 20, 2018 – The New York Times: “Extra $30 Billion Promised for ‘Shovel-Ready’ Wall. Will Create Jobs, Say Republicans”
June 3, 2018 – Barron’s: “House Prices Down 15% From 2017, Still Falling”
June 15, 2018 – The Washington Post: “Trump Economic Advisors Propose Sweeping Relief Program, Labeled ‘Make America Great Again’”
June 18, 2018 – Trump Tweet: “Give All American Taxpayers a One-Time Tax Credit. $1,000 for Every Taxpayer. Finally, a break for the middle class!”
June 22, 2018 – Trump Tweet: “Time for Republicans and Democrats to get behind my plan. We need an extra $2 trillion of investment in education, police, and military. Put people back to work. #MAGA”
July 1, 2018 – The Wall Street Journal: “Trump Tacks 30% Tariff on Wide Range of Imports; Global Trade Falls Further.
July 2, 2018 – Trump Tweet: “Americans need JOBS! Exporting jobs overseas is treason. We need to protect American workers.”
July 3, 2018 – The Wall Street Journal: “Negative GDP Readings for Q2, U.S. Enters Recession”
July 3, 2018 – The Washington Post: “Downturn Puts Millions Out of Work, Jobless Rate Crosses 8%”
July 3, 2018 – Trump Tweet: No more stalling. Dems need to pass MAGA bill. Americans need relief. And they need it NOW!!”
July 4, 2018 – The Washington Post: “Military Parade Brings Out Trump’s Base; ‘Just like North Korea,’ Say Critics”
July 5, 2018 – Financial Times: “Bipartisan Bailout Package Prepared for Major U.S. Banks and Corporations”
July 6, 2018 – Financial Times: “Deficit Soars to Over $2 trillion. Dow, Treasurys, dollar sink further.”
July 7, 2018 – The Diary: “Told You So”
Regards,
Bill
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Category: Geopolitics