In today’s letter, it’s necessary to acknowledge the difference between an “atom” bomb and a “hydrogen” bomb. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un set today’s Capital and Conflict agenda when his country conducted its fourth nuclear test in the last nine years. The test triggered a “seismic disturbance” measuring 5.1 on the Richter scale, which is how the rest of the world learned about it.
Never one to miss a trick, the North Korean leader sent a spokesman on TV and explained the test. It was “an act of self-defence” against the United States. It was also a “miniaturised hydrogen bomb”.
That was the interesting bit
Well, all of it is “interesting”, especially for investors. This year may well be dominated by geopolitical events. As if a civil war in the Levant wasn’t enough. Or a simmering territorial dispute in the South China Sea. Add to that more bomb testing on the Korean peninsula.
It’s a strange world when you can make light of a nuclear bomb test. But North Korea is a strange place. And Kim Jong Un is a strange man. A single family has held an entire country hostage since 1948. That’s strange.
The serious part about yesterday’s test is that it was a thermonuclear bomb. A simple atom bomb – like the ones that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the United States – is a fission bomb. The nucleus of an atom from uranium or plutonium is split, unleashing its tremendous energy.
A thermonuclear bomb uses an atomic bomb as a trigger. The fission reaction generates a chain of fusion reactions. If you’re a nuclear physicist, please excuse my crude explanation. But the point is: a thermonuclear bomb is a lot more powerful than an atomic bomb. North Korea’s bomb-making capabilities appear to be improving.
Successful “ejection”
The North Koreans still can’t stick a powerful bomb on an inter-continental ballistic missile and fire it at, say, San Francisco. Not yet, anyway. But, North Korea successfully “ejected” a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in December, according to 38 North, a US-based North Korea studies institute. The Institute said:
“Reports of a North Korean “ejection” test of the Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1, KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on December 21, 2015, appear to be supported by new commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpo South Shipyard. This imagery also indicates that despite reports of a failed test in late November 2015 North Korea is continuing to actively pursue its SLBM development programme.”
Maybe the North Koreans don’t need an ICBM after all. And maybe submarine-based nuclear deterrents are also acts of “self-defence” in the modern world where nuclear technology proliferates. With all the “maybes” there’s one “definite’: it’s shaping up to be a year of conflict.
Category: Geopolitics